WKTV WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK
Friday October 1st
NewsChannel 2 Weather Team
The much anticipated event is here. We don't know why people get so excited about
this, or why they put so much stock into what we think will happen, but here it is...
We all (Rich, Amanda, and Adam) put our heads together, researched this fully, and
came to the following conclusions:
1) The overall weather pattern hasn't changed much since October 2002. There is still a
big Western Drought. There is still a ton of warm water in the far North Pacific and the
far North Atlantic Oceans... both of which favor crazy jet stream patterns that lock Canada
and the Northern US into a cold stormy pattern and keeps the West coast and the oceans
a lot warmer than normal
2) Neutral pattern to Slight El Nino forecasted. But El Nino is supposed to bring us milder
and less snowy winters right? Yes, but only when they are moderate to strong. When they
are weak they can actually work against you like Christmas 2002 and the Blizzard of '66
which both happened in weak El Nino's. Our climate research finds neutral patterns favor
us having good "old fashioned winters", therefore we think the odds of mowing our
lawns in January, as we did in 2002, are very low.
3) The cold summer. Cold summers typically through our climate research are followed by
normal to above normal winters.
4) Hurricanes. While this connection is weak, there does seem to be a loose correlation to the
number of hurricanes and the snowfall here the next season. Harder to prove, but when there
have been lots of hurricanes (ex. 1969, 1995) snowy winters have followed.
5) The geese and "woolly bears". Mother Nature's "Barometer" so to speak seems to be going
along with years consistent with normal to harsh winters from what we've seen.
So without further interruption, here it is:
At or above normal on snowfall for Utica. The season average is
98.9" and we are thinking 100" to 125". Essential take the average snowfall
where you live and go from there to 25% above that number.
Temperatures near or below normal, but not as drastic as say last January.
Anywhere from normal to 2 degrees below normal for average temperatures this winter.
Keep in mind January 2004 was one of the 10 coldest months on record, and this winter
was the second in a row to be more than 4 degrees below normal. Maintaining such extreme
winters in a row from a perspective of statistics alone is unlikely, but weather trends we're
seeing don't suggest a very mild winter, therefore a lesser forecast of cold but still cold.
THE NOVEMBER FACTOR... In the last 10-15 years the trends for temperature and snowfall
have often mirrored the rest of that following winter. We'll see how November goes and how
our thoughts and analysis plays out over the next two months. We will issue an update to
this outlook on December 1st.
Until then, you can write us with questions or feedback at email@example.com
Thanks for reading!!!